February 14th, 2022

Come gather ‘round people Wherever you roam And admit that the waters Around you have grown And accept it that soon You’ll be drenched to the bone…And you better start swimming Or you’ll sink like a stone For the times they are a-changing--

Bob Dylan (1964)

After one year of the Biden Administration, public attitudes on major issues clearly are changing: Covid seems less scary and mandates are being called into question; inflation is casting a pall on government spending; law abiding citizens want those who commit serious crimes to go to jail and stay there; illegal immigration is becoming a problem beyond the southern border; climate change mandates are proving expensive, particularly as they affect domestic energy supply; diplomacy is wonderful, but positive diplomatic outcomes are best pursued from a position of strength. Worst of all, you can’t trust anybody. Not even Dr. Fauci.

The big question in Washington this February is whether President Biden is paying attention. Is he beginning to see the light or is he still looking for the light switch? Considering his dismal poll numbers, some political strategists argue that—short of WW III—things could not get much worse. But these Capital Cassandras ignore the flickers of light at the end of the Tunnel of Gov that the President and his party have been trying so hard to build. So if you are a Biden supporter, consider this update a Valentine’s box of candy half full:

Nick of Time Negotiator. When it comes to foreign policy, the Biden Administration is making the best of a really bad situation. They see diplomacy as the only way out, and in terms of “spin” they are probably right. If Putin does not invade Ukraine, in return for whatever concessions the West is willing to make, President Biden will be hailed as a 21st century Talleyrand, savior of the NATO alliance, etc. Perhaps that is why his foreign policy team made the extraordinary claim that not only is Putin going to invade Ukraine, but he’s probably going in this week. Never mind that at the outset of the crisis, the Biden administration vowed that an invasion of Ukraine was non-negotiable. They (and other European leaders) have been in talks with Putin ever since about what it will take for him to pull back. On the other hand, if Putin does invade Ukraine—and that would be an enormous mistake—President Biden will get the opportunity to show just how tough he is. He has promised to impose “the mother of all sanctions.” NATO will get an opportunity to show that it is more than an antique Cold War construct. It might even make voters feel better about Afghanistan. Whatever happens, the Biden Administration figures they are positioned to be able to justify their response to what could be the biggest foreign policy crisis since Khrushchev sent those missiles to Cuba.

Similar diplomatic maneuvers are underway with Iran. The Biden Administration desperately wants to resurrect some iteration of the Iran nuclear accord and has been preemptively lifting sanctions to keep talks going in Vienna. But with the Mullahs, it’s like offering carrots to carnivores. It’s no secret in Washington that what the Biden Administration really wants is an excuse to lift sanctions on Iranian oil production, in the hope that increased world oil supply will reduce energy prices at home. It’s a more rational reason for what’s going on in Vienna than stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons. In the Biden Administration’s calculus, any delay + lower oil prices = a double win.

Pandemic Pivot. The fear factor seems to be receding in tandem with the decline in hospitalizations. At the same time, increasing numbers of people are beginning to question the wisdom of government public health mandates. More people are also beginning to ignore the mandates that are still in place, a form of Covid Disobedience. Increasing numbers of politicians are beginning to look for ways—any ways—to return peoples’ lives to normal. One option: just declare victory and pretend you are Florida. The Biden Administration has corrected their mask and testing shortage problem. The Post Office’s handling of the free test kit deliveries was flawless. Now the problem is that if you use one of those four free test kits the government sent you and test positive, there is a shortage of therapeutics for you to take in the five-day window after being diagnosed with Covid. Oops. Turns out that in putting all their eggs in the vaccine basket (no pun intended), the HHS neglected to order enough of the breakthrough antiviral medications. These should be available by June, but with luck nobody will be waiting in line to get them. The bottom line: Covid will cease to be a problem when a majority no longer consider it a problem and governments end disruptive emergency pandemic measures. That will be the new “return to normal,” and it is attainable.

Inflation Innocence. It’s surprising that the Administration doesn’t have an Inflation Scapegoat Task Force. Some progressive economic advisors are calling on the President to call out corporations in highly concentrated industries, like meatpacking or container shipping, but the White House has resisted. Covid is fading as an excuse, although supply chain bottlenecks persist—the latest being those stubborn Canadian truckers. The FTC is investigating the oil companies for the 38’th time, but Americans seem to have gotten wise to the laws of supply and demand. Biden has pledged to “bring down gasoline prices,” but USG’s got limited options: 1) suspend the Federal gas tax (states could follow suit); 2) ban US oil exports; 3) end constraints on domestic production and pipeline transportation; 4) release massive amounts of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve; and/or 5) lift international sanctions that restrict global supply. The biggest challenge for the President and his party as they try and shift blame for rising prices: American voters have begun to associate inflation with record levels of government spending. Republicans have successfully painted the Democrats as the party of tax and spend.

Tougher (talk) on Crime. The surge in crime, especially in major cities run by Democrats, has become a potent political issue which demands a potent response. “Getting guns off the streets and out of the hands of criminals” is as old a remedy as “bell the cat.” But who’s going to do the job? Mayor Adams of NYC is the great hope in this regard, but so far he has only talked tough while shedding tears to show that his heart is in the right place. The last time New Yorkers elected a mayor to do something about crime it was Rudy Giuliani, and he did more than just talk. But crime is basically a local issue and thus the responsibility of state and local officials. Therefore, President Biden and vulnerable Congressional Democrats can get away with just tough talk. They also must vocally disavow those in their party who still call for defunding the police and replacing them with social workers—something they have so far been unwilling to do.

Do-something Congress. Congressional Democrats have wisely abandoned going for the long ball and are trying to hit as many inside-the-park hits as possible in the four months until the 2022 midterm campaign season begins. They have had some success, passing legislation providing long-needed financial reforms at the Post Office; advancing legislation designed to improve America’s competitive position vs. China; approving a bill to end forced arbitration in sexual harassment cases; nearing agreement on a top-line spending number for FY 2022 which keeps the government running and the Pentagon funded; and swift (for the Senate) approval of Biden’s Supreme Court nominee. There could even be a deal between Senator Manchin (who favors higher taxes on the “wealthy”) to pay for more additional social or environmental spending that he can support—call it Claw Back Barely. Raising taxes on anybody in an election year is a risky economic gamble, and it’s by no means certain that Congressional Democrats can agree on which of their pet spending programs will make it into the slimmed down budget reconciliation bill that can pass the Senate with only 51 votes.

Berate and Switch. If all else fails, there should be ample opportunities for the Democrats and the Biden Administration to change the subject. The Supreme Court is expected to issue an important abortion ruling by June. Should the Justices overturn or significantly weaken Roe v. Wade, they could hand the Democrats a potent political issue for the midterms, especially with swing-voting suburban women. The President’s nomination of a pro-choice Justice to the soon-to-be-vacant seat on the Court should play nicely in any new national debate over “a woman’s right to choose.”

Then there’s the other super-hot button in politics: Donald Trump. He hasn’t changed his stripes, and he certainly looks like he’s running for President in 2024. His repeated insistence that the 2020 election was stolen and that the January 6’th riotous attempt to disrupt the counting of the electoral college votes was “legitimate political discourse” is not winning him any new supporters and is dividing his party. When it comes to where he wants to take the country, his itinerary is popular, but his baggage is over the limit. His massive political rallies energize his supporters, but they also energize the millions of Never-Trumpers out there. The higher his profile, the less Democrats have to defend themselves.

Be Careful About Claiming Credit. David Axelrod, Barack Obama’s longtime chief political strategist, recently offered the President some shrewd advice: “You should claim credit for progress, but with care. You can’t jawbone people into feeling better. Inflation—and general orneriness after years of pandemic—have left Americans in a sour mood. You can’t tell them that what they are experiencing in their lives is wrong. So stick to reality. Make them feel better by doing a better job.

” That’s just what the Biden Administration needs to hear this Valentine’s Day: tough love.

John Gore’s monthly Washington Overview and Special Reports are now available by e-mail subscription. Get valuable insights on current and future policy developments that could affect your security and economic wellbeing.

August 1st, 2023

Congress has left town for a six-week August recess.  President Biden has headed to the beach.  With Congress gone and the President incommunicado oceanside, there’s a whole lot of politicking going on.  The conventional wisdom reads something like this:

• The various criminal charges against former President Trump, to the extent that they appear politically motivated, will all but assure that he is the Republican nominee in 2024.  They are having little effect on his core supporters, other than to anger and/or energize them.

• President Biden, despite his increasing frailty and the unpopularity of some of his programs, appears to have a lock on the Democratic nomination.  He presides over a diaspora of the disaffected (blacks, LBTGQ+, younger voters, suburban women, the hard left, the Trump loathers).  Serious primary challengers have yet to emerge, and the White House is behaving as if none will.

• This sets up a Biden-Trump rematch which (according to the latest polls) almost 70% of American voters do not want.

• In that rematch, it will be difficult for Trump to amass more votes than he did in 2020.  Under that scenario, Biden wins reelection, and control of both the House and Senate are up for grabs.

Here’s why the pundits may have the wrong prognosis:

1.  2024 is increasingly looking like The Election of Unintended Consequences.   Trump’s criminal indictments—so many of them, with more possibly to come—are beginning to validate his “they’re out to get me!” claims.  The Department of Justice IS out to convict the former President.  But the harder they and local prosecutors try, the more the effort can be painted as political persecution.  The more convoluted their cases, the more vulnerable they are to appeal—appeals which could drag Trump’s legal proceedings well into, or even beyond, next November’s election.  Maybe even get some of the cases thrown out.

2.  President Biden’s blanket denials that a) he ever talked with his son Hunter about his business dealings and b) that he never profited from those dealings are growing increasingly difficult to explain.  There is just so much evidence to the contrary, with more to come.  The real question is:  did Joe Biden benefit financially from his family’s influence peddling and are there instances where he acted on their behalf?  Like getting that Ukrainian prosecutor fired who was looking into Burisma.  It’s called “stream of services” bribery.  The White House has already modified its blanket denials; it now says, “the President was never in business with his son.”  A distinction without much of a difference.  The Biden reelection team is scrambling for defenses other than Nixon’s (I am not a crook), Trump’s (it’s a hoax!), Hillary’s (that’s old news) or the New York Times’ (all the news that’s unfit to print).  Look for some creative craftmanship in the coming weeks, e.g. “The Burisma inquiry is nothing more than an attempt by MAGA Republicans to undermine US support for Ukraine…”  But in the words of one respected legal analyst, “This is shaping up to be a scandal of historic proportions, even by Washington standards.”

3.  The harder the Biden Justice Department tries to dispense justice, the more it looks like it is playing favorites.  The Hunter Biden plea deal now looks like somebody at DOJ tried to pull a fast one, but the judge read the fine print and Hunter was forced to plead “not guilty.”  His lawyers and the Department of Justice (also his lawyers?) will spend their August trying to work out a new plea deal that can satisfy the Judge and the court of public opinion.  David Weiss, the Delaware prosecutor in Hunter Biden’s case is expected to testify before House investigators in late September or October.  Weiss has wide prosecutorial latitude but expect hard questioning from House Republicans.  With his reputation on the line, Weiss will be a tough nut to crack.  Ironically, If Weiss can’t stop the bleeding and discredit the various whistleblowers who have come forward, Republicans who have been calling for the appointment of a special prosecutor might get their wish.  Be careful what you wish for.  An “ongoing investigation” by a Special Prosecutor could undercut House probes and drag on for another five years.  Or the judge in Hunter’s case could approve a “get out of jail” plea deal and that could cause Republican apoplexy and increase their determination to bring down his father.  Hunter, be careful what you wish for.

4.  We live in uncertain times.  The two leading candidates for 2024 are both past their prime.  Trump seems to have boundless energy, but he is not immortal.  Biden is increasingly frail and senile.  Meanwhile, a major proxy war rages in the heart of Europe with no end in sight.  After thousands of years of passivity, China is suddenly aggressive, and it has the military might to back up its bluster.  Iran is spinning its way to a nuclear bomb, with neither sanctions nor supplications serving as an effective deterrent.  Global alliances and allegiances are shifting with unpredictable consequences.  Americans are beginning to feel less secure when it comes to national security.

5.  Good economic news is perceived as bad.  It would be quite an achievement if the Fed raises interest rates at the fastest pace in history without triggering a recession.  So far, so good.  The job market continues to be strong.  The economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace.  So why is the “Bidenomics” road show a bust?  Four reasons:  the price of gas, the price of groceries, the cost of housing, and the decline of real wages.  You can’t tell someone they’re a stallion when they feel like a goat.  

6.  Finally, on the campaign trail, former President Trump continues to hold a commanding lead over his primary opponents.  In some recent polls, he actually beats Biden in a 2024 rematch.  But he is also raising the stakes for Republicans, including House Speaker McCarthy, by threatening to find primary opponents for anyone who doesn’t push for Biden’s impeachment.  At a recent rally in Pennsylvania, Trump warned “If they’re not willing to do it, we’ve got a lot of good, tough Republicans around. People are going to run against ‘em, and people are going to win. And they’re going to get my endorsement every single time. They’re going to win cuz we win almost every race when we endorse.”  For Republicans, that’s a bit like the captain of the Titanic telling you to remain in your cabin and hold your breath.

Enjoy the recess.  Icebergs ahead…

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