August 1st,2023

Congress has left town for a six-week August recess.  President Biden has headed to the beach.  With Congress gone and the President incommunicado oceanside, there’s a whole lot of politicking going on.  The conventional wisdom reads something like this:

• The various criminal charges against former President Trump, to the extent that they appear politically motivated, will all but assure that he is the Republican nominee in 2024.  They are having little effect on his core supporters, other than to anger and/or energize them.

• President Biden, despite his increasing frailty and the unpopularity of some of his programs, appears to have a lock on the Democratic nomination.  He presides over a diaspora of the disaffected (blacks, LBTGQ+, younger voters, suburban women, the hard left, the Trump loathers).  Serious primary challengers have yet to emerge, and the White House is behaving as if none will.

• This sets up a Biden-Trump rematch which (according to the latest polls) almost 70% of American voters do not want.

• In that rematch, it will be difficult for Trump to amass more votes than he did in 2020.  Under that scenario, Biden wins reelection, and control of both the House and Senate are up for grabs.

Here’s why the pundits may have the wrong prognosis:

1.  2024 is increasingly looking like The Election of Unintended Consequences.   Trump’s criminal indictments—so many of them, with more possibly to come—are beginning to validate his “they’re out to get me!” claims.  The Department of Justice IS out to convict the former President.  But the harder they and local prosecutors try, the more the effort can be painted as political persecution.  The more convoluted their cases, the more vulnerable they are to appeal—appeals which could drag Trump’s legal proceedings well into, or even beyond, next November’s election.  Maybe even get some of the cases thrown out.

2.  President Biden’s blanket denials that a) he ever talked with his son Hunter about his business dealings and b) that he never profited from those dealings are growing increasingly difficult to explain.  There is just so much evidence to the contrary, with more to come.  The real question is:  did Joe Biden benefit financially from his family’s influence peddling and are there instances where he acted on their behalf?  Like getting that Ukrainian prosecutor fired who was looking into Burisma.  It’s called “stream of services” bribery.  The White House has already modified its blanket denials; it now says, “the President was never in business with his son.”  A distinction without much of a difference.  The Biden reelection team is scrambling for defenses other than Nixon’s (I am not a crook), Trump’s (it’s a hoax!), Hillary’s (that’s old news) or the New York Times’ (all the news that’s unfit to print).  Look for some creative craftmanship in the coming weeks, e.g. “The Burisma inquiry is nothing more than an attempt by MAGA Republicans to undermine US support for Ukraine…”  But in the words of one respected legal analyst, “This is shaping up to be a scandal of historic proportions, even by Washington standards.”

3.  The harder the Biden Justice Department tries to dispense justice, the more it looks like it is playing favorites.  The Hunter Biden plea deal now looks like somebody at DOJ tried to pull a fast one, but the judge read the fine print and Hunter was forced to plead “not guilty.”  His lawyers and the Department of Justice (also his lawyers?) will spend their August trying to work out a new plea deal that can satisfy the Judge and the court of public opinion.  David Weiss, the Delaware prosecutor in Hunter Biden’s case is expected to testify before House investigators in late September or October.  Weiss has wide prosecutorial latitude but expect hard questioning from House Republicans.  With his reputation on the line, Weiss will be a tough nut to crack.  Ironically, If Weiss can’t stop the bleeding and discredit the various whistleblowers who have come forward, Republicans who have been calling for the appointment of a special prosecutor might get their wish.  Be careful what you wish for.  An “ongoing investigation” by a Special Prosecutor could undercut House probes and drag on for another five years.  Or the judge in Hunter’s case could approve a “get out of jail” plea deal and that could cause Republican apoplexy and increase their determination to bring down his father.  Hunter, be careful what you wish for.

4.  We live in uncertain times.  The two leading candidates for 2024 are both past their prime.  Trump seems to have boundless energy, but he is not immortal.  Biden is increasingly frail and senile.  Meanwhile, a major proxy war rages in the heart of Europe with no end in sight.  After thousands of years of passivity, China is suddenly aggressive, and it has the military might to back up its bluster.  Iran is spinning its way to a nuclear bomb, with neither sanctions nor supplications serving as an effective deterrent.  Global alliances and allegiances are shifting with unpredictable consequences.  Americans are beginning to feel less secure when it comes to national security.

5.  Good economic news is perceived as bad.  It would be quite an achievement if the Fed raises interest rates at the fastest pace in history without triggering a recession.  So far, so good.  The job market continues to be strong.  The economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace.  So why is the “Bidenomics” road show a bust?  Four reasons:  the price of gas, the price of groceries, the cost of housing, and the decline of real wages.  You can’t tell someone they’re a stallion when they feel like a goat.  

6.  Finally, on the campaign trail, former President Trump continues to hold a commanding lead over his primary opponents.  In some recent polls, he actually beats Biden in a 2024 rematch.  But he is also raising the stakes for Republicans, including House Speaker McCarthy, by threatening to find primary opponents for anyone who doesn’t push for Biden’s impeachment.  At a recent rally in Pennsylvania, Trump warned “If they’re not willing to do it, we’ve got a lot of good, tough Republicans around. People are going to run against ‘em, and people are going to win. And they’re going to get my endorsement every single time. They’re going to win cuz we win almost every race when we endorse.”  For Republicans, that’s a bit like the captain of the Titanic telling you to remain in your cabin and hold your breath.

Enjoy the recess.  Icebergs ahead…

October 11th,2024

“Predicting election outcomes is a fool’s errand.”

-- John C. Gore

I speak from experience. So as election day 2024 approaches, consider these musings less of a prediction, but rather an attempt to explain the perplexing. Kamala Harris. Her “campaign of joy” is running out of happiness vibes. Probably because casting yourself as an outsider (when you have been an integral part of an administration that has a 54% disapproval rating) is an act of prestidigitation more flamboyant than when Houdini made an elephant disappear. Hiding in plain sight may not be a winning strategy, especially when you don’t have Covid restrictions as an excuse.

The Vice President has managed to avoid an unscripted press conference for over three months now, but her campaign advisors have decided that she can no longer afford to avoid the press altogether. So she has begun a series of interviews, starting with Sixty Minutes, designed to show her in a positive light. The danger here is that some journalist might press her on some of the Biden/Harris administration’s policies which are unpopular, e.g. the border or inflation. Were those policies a mistake? Does she have any regrets? What would a Harris/Walz administration do differently? She is the artful dodger, but dodging is more difficult when the mark is watching closely.

So far, Harris hasn’t proven up to the challenge. Even on friendly turf (Colbert and The View) she was unable to answer the fundamental questions of what she would do differently—except appoint a Republican to her cabinet. Liz Cheyney? Even that was an afterthought. On another interview she said that she was proud of the last four years and “wouldn’t change a thing.” President Biden then threw her an anchor, proclaiming that he and she worked in lockstep and that she participated in all the big decisions. All of this serves to reinforce the impression that when it comes to policy, Harris is a “change agent” with a static agenda.

She also has crises, both domestic and foreign, working against her. The war in the Middle East continues to escalate, and the Biden/Harris administration seems powerless to stop it. Oil markets are already anticipating that an Israeli attack on Iran could result in a dramatic spike in oil prices. A commensurate jump in prices at the pump right before the election would be really bad news for Harris. Nor are things going well in Europe. It looks like the war in Ukraine is going to require ever more US and NATO support just to maintain a deadly stalemate. But US support for Ukraine may have peaked, as Americans focus on more pressing domestic priorities. Hurricanes Helene and Milton require flawless relief efforts—once again putting the Biden/Harris administration on the defensive. They are labelling any criticism as “dangerous disinformation,’ but the joke around Washington at the moment is that Harris tried to spare Florida by telling Milton “Don’t.”

Finally, some of the Vice President’s past positions are working against her—not the radical things she said when she was in the Senate—but the Biden Administration’s policies she has supported since then. She claims that she does not favor an EV mandate, but she does support the EPA’s new greenhouse gas emissions rules which require that battery-powered and plug-in hybrid vehicles make up 32% of automaker sales by 2027. That’s two years from now. By 2032 no more than 29% of new cars can be gas-powered. This is already costing jobs in a state like Michigan, as lagging EV sales are forcing layoffs and plant closures. She’s talking tough now on the border, but many border-state voters credit her with causing the crisis that she now vows to fix.

As for supporting gun owners’ rights, almost nobody believes her. Ditto for fracking. You don’t have to ban fracking to cripple it via other regulatory means. Her foreign policy chops are toothless. What does Harris have going for her as the campaign enters its final month? She is personable and likeable, articulate when rehearsed, and vague without appearing vacuous. But her biggest applause line is “I am not Donald Trump.” That’s the key to her winning in November: reminding voters that Trump is Public Enemy #1. She needs to rekindle the hatred.

Donald Trump. With disapproval ratings about as high as Biden’s, a felony conviction, and indictments galore, it’s interesting that Trump is holding his own. The betting prognosticators are saying that the race is essentially tied, but that momentum has shifted slightly in Trump’s favor, which is another way of saying that Harris is losing hers. Two possible reasons for this: Harris’ underwhelming performance and Trump’s efforts to soften his image. One gets the sense that despite the bombast, Trump’s efforts to soften his image may actually be working. On the margins, rage is being replaced by dislike, or even indifference. This is important, as Trump’s very large base of support remains both solid and enthusiastic.

The debate against Harris seems to have taught Trump an important lesson (if you can teach him anything): don’t take the bait. And there will be baiting galore in the closing weeks. In addition to his trademark big rallies, he is doing more one-on-one interviews and town halls, where he comes across as personable, funny, and even likeable. Case in point: when he returned to the site of the first assassination attempt, his opening line to the 100,000 people who came to see him was: “As I was saying…” It was something Ronald Reagan might have quipped. And when it comes to policy, with the exception of abortion, Trump seems to hold the stronger positions.

Trump is also touting his Washington experience (!), admitting that he made some bad appointments back in 2016 because “I didn’t know anybody.” He seems to have gotten it right with his VP pick. Democrat efforts to define Vance as an abortion extremist and far-right wacko fell flat, especially after his debate with Governor Walz. Vance has done a good job pointing up both the Biden Administration’s failings and VP Harris’ inconsistencies. Trump has also been pounding her positions, but he can’t resist piling on the insults, e.g. “she’s a moron,” which doesn’t sit well with those suburban women voters he so badly needs. Which gets to the heart of Trump’s persona: he is intuitive, but he is also impulsive. That’s the yin- yang that resulted in both the Covid vaccine and the January 6th riot. So Trump’s principal challenge in the next four weeks is NOT to be the focus of the 2024 election. He will have to tone it down and play it smart.

Can he control those self-destructive impulses? Above all, Republicans will have to turbocharge their get-out-the-vote efforts. Turnout will be the key to victory in 2024, especially in those seven swing states that are key to the Electoral College tally. Control of Congress. The conventional wisdom is that the Republicans will retake control of the Senate by the narrowest of margins. Out of the 34 seats up in 2024, Democrats must defend 23, with Republicans needing a net gain of two to regain control of the chamber. As of this writing, there are still 12 seats in play. With neither party looking at a landslide at the top of the ticket, down ballot ticket splitting may be more prevalent, which tends to favor Democrats. They also currently hold an enormous campaign cash advantage, but the math and the mood favor the Republicans.

All 435 House seats are up for reelection, and fewer than 30 are rated as “toss up.” A testament to gerrymandering and the power of incumbency. The Democrats would seem to have a slight advantage as some of those seats are in districts in blue states like NY and California, but there are several respected models which show the Republicans retaining control. One thing is certain: it could be days or even weeks after election day before we know the final results due to absentee ballots, ranked choice voting, and legal challenges. Another near certainty: whoever wins control, their majority will be minute. Is anybody paying attention? With less than a month to go before election day, that’s the $64 billion (adjusted for inflation) question. After a whirlwind of major events, the election campaign seems to have entered the doldrums. Most voters have made up their minds and many will be casting their votes early, either in person or absentee. Almost all the polls indicate that this election will be very close. I could give you multiple reasons why it shouldn’t be, but that would require the application of common sense to politics.

Another fool’s errand.